Fundamental changes in international trade will see western markets weaken in the face of challenges from the world’s emerging economies. If the direction of these changes is generally accepted, the scale and speed in which they will occur is still a matter for speculation. The Future of Trade, casts an expert eye over how markets might change in the next decade.
We are almost certainly following a path in which the old structures, created by the US and Europe after the Second World War are no longer what the report calls “fit for purpose.”
Asian economies, propelled by a rising middle class and a youthful workforce, are already both influencing world trade and international diplomacy. Edging closer to a seat at the top table, thanks to a wealth of natural resources, are likely to be Africa and Latin America.
Any calculation about the future must also take into account the speed of technology. The new networks of trade, connecting like-minded individuals, extend well beyond national boundaries. Advances like 3-D printing bring new opportunities for manufacturing and will influence how and where we trade. It makes for a future that is exciting but also uncertain.
Some will fare better than others. China, responsible for a quarter of the world’s GDP over the past decade, remains a major force. Its hunger for resources is a major factor in export markets from Australia to Brazil. Some believe the Remnimbi could replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency; others see increased influence but not domination. India also has massive potential if it can solve its problems of a sagging infrastructure and deep-rooted corruption.
China’s great rival, the United States, benefits from a massive internal market that reduces its reliance on global trade. With the US increasingly moving towards energy self-sufficiency, and decreasing appetite for foreign intervention following Iraq, many fear increased volatility in regions where American power once predominated.
For the last 12 months DMCC, the authority on trade, enterprise and commodities in Dubai, has teamed up with FutureAgenda on an odyssey to discover the future of global trade. We gathered industry leaders, academics and experts in five key cities to discuss how global trade will change in the next decade and how it will drive the global economy into the next phase of growth.Download PDF
Shifting Power and Influence – Gautam Sashittal
What Will Follow the Euro?
There is general consensus that the Euro experiment has had its day. Some see potential fragmentation into a multi-currency free-trading block will lead to the reduction of European influence on the global stage. Certainly in Asia many believe broadly that there are three possible options. First the Euro will be split in two, probably on a North and South divide; second, a couple of major former currencies will be reintroduced, or third, there will be a complete re-fragmentation of the euro zone into individual national currencies and economic interests. In the US opinion leaders were more prosaic suggesting that the region will muddle through continuing, certainly in the medium term, to struggle with ‘disappointing growth, high unemployment and persistent sovereign debt issues.’ Few in Europe continue to hope for a global leadership role…Europe’s days in the economic sunshine are, in the opinions of many, in relative decline.Share
India a Long-Term Bet to Ride High
India is still a tricky place to do business. Many prefer to see it as a long-term bet which will ride high on a highly connected Indian diaspora and a number of very progressive business leaders. The current government has certainly big ambitions. It is aiming to double India’s exports of goods to $900 billion a year by 2020 and is using its Foreign Trade Policy to integrate government initiatives such as ‘Make in India” and improve India’s share of global trade from 2% to 3.5% by 2020. HSBC sees that the UAE’s growing role as a regional trading hub will make it India’s top export destination by 2030. It makes sense, the UAE and India have strong historical commercial and cultural links.
With 1.3bn people and its growing middle class, little need for military expansion to secure resources and many leading edge service businesses, few doubt that in the end India has the potential to be the world’s #1 economy.Share
For us, understanding how trade is going to move ten years from now is very very important so we can try to figure out how Dubai and DMCC figure in this global trade which is today worth about $40 trillion.
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The world’s leading open foresight programme. In an increasingly interconnected, complex and uncertain world, many organisations are looking for a better understanding of how the future may unfold. To do this successfully, many companies, institutions and governments are working to improve their use of strategic foresight in order to anticipate emerging issues and prepare for new opportunities.
AstroLabs Dubai is the only Google-partnered tech hub in the MENA region, serving as a launch pad for the highest potential tech startups. The space features a Google-supported mobile device development lab, a training facility, meeting rooms, etc. Through a partnership with DMCC, the authority on trade, enterprise and commodities in Dubai, startups at AstroLabs Dubai will be able to easily obtain a free zone company license with no upfront costs.
Google Campus London is a unique tech hub, co-working and event space in the heart of the UK capital. Google began life as a startup in a garage in California, and have kept their passion for entrepreneurship. With Campus, they wanted to create a connecting space, somewhere for founders to network, learn, teach, and grow.
For 20 years the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has supplied independent economic forecasting and analysis to hundreds of private firms and public organisations. Their predictions have a strong track record of forecasting accuracy at international, national and even company level, placing them consistently in the top handful of UK economics teams and winning them awards and headlines. They are still growing strongly despite on-off UK recession and weak trading conditions and their clients grow with them.
For two decades, Dubai-based CPI has published magazines and guides, organised events and run successful marketing campaigns across the GCC. From an initial start with B2B IT titles, it has grown its range to include industry, oil & gas, construction and finance. For the last five years, it has also published in the consumer space, bringing globally important brands to the regional market. CPI has grown organically from a single title to its current stable of over 25 titles, over 20 web portals, over a dozen awards ceremonies and numerous B2B events and conferences. Aggressive expansion plans mean more will follow in the next two years.
In October 2007, New York University announced its intention to open a complete branch campus in Abu Dhabi, financed by the government of the United Arab Emirates. The Abu Dhabi campus was planned by New York University, and the funding mainly came from the UAE government. The school was first opened in 2008 on a temporary site in downtown Abu Dhabi, where it held various public events such as academic conferences, workshops, and performances. New York University moved the Abu Dhabi campus to a new site in 2014 in the Marina district of Saadiyat Island. Christian Haefke, NYUAD professor of economics, is an expert on labor markets and econometrics and is a valuable contributor to the Future of Trade programme.
Since 1994 OBG has been at the frontier of mapping new waves of emerging economies. OBG now operates in many of the world's fastest growing markets, offering internationally acclaimed intelligence on regions that are shaping the future balance of economic power. OBG provides its global readership with the business intelligence they need to stay ahead. OBG has access to the most accurate statistics and independent analysis available, assisting clients in making fundamental long-term investment decisions in and about regions where access to knowledge is power.
S P Jain School of Global Management is an Australian business school with campuses in Sydney, Mumbai, Singapore and Dubai. The school offers undergraduate and graduate/postgraduate business courses. For the last five of its 11 years history, S P Jain has been ranked among the world’s top schools. In 2015, the School has been ranked #10 in the Best International Business School by Forbes for its one-year MBA program. In 2013 – 14, it was ranked in the Top 20 Best International Business Schools by Forbes. And in 2011 and 2012, UK’s Financial Times ranked the Global MBA in its Top 100 Global MBA rankings. S P Jain is the youngest business school to be in these prestigious rankings and attributes its success to its innovative education model.
The U.S.-U.A.E. Business Council is the premier business organisation dedicated to advancing bilateral commercial relations. By leveraging its extensive networks in the U.S. and in the region, the U.S.-U.A.E. Business Council provides unparalleled access to senior decision makers in business and government with the aim of deepening bilateral trade and investment.
For the last 12 months DMCC, the authority on trade, enterprise and commodities in Dubai, has teamed up with FutureAgenda on an odyssey to discover the future of global trade. We gathered industry leaders, academics and experts in five key cities to discuss how global trade will change in the next decade and how it will drive the global economy into the next phase of growth.Download pdf